Covert Nuclear Programs

How do secret nuclear programs create bargaining problems?

Takeaway Points

  1. If a declining state cannot adequately monitor a rising state’s nuclear program, it must decide whether to initiate preventive war by guessing whether the rising state will build.
  2. This creates a classic guessing game strategic scenario.
  3. To introduce the logic of such guessing games, we use soccer penalty kicks as a useful analogy.