Sanctions and Leaders

How does leader tenure correlates with sanctions?

Takeaway Points

  1. Sanctions can occur when the imposer overestimates their effectiveness.
  2. Part of what makes sanctions effective is their ability to drive the current leader out of office.
  3. There is more uncertainty about a leader’s hold over office the newer a leader is. As a result, sanctions are more likely when a leader is newer in office.
  4. This effect is more prominent for autocratic regimes, as there is less information about those leaders in the first place.