How does leader tenure correlates with sanctions?
- Sanctions can occur when the imposer overestimates their effectiveness.
- Part of what makes sanctions effective is their ability to drive the current leader out of office.
- There is more uncertainty about a leader’s hold over office the newer a leader is. As a result, sanctions are more likely when a leader is newer in office.
- This effect is more prominent for autocratic regimes, as there is less information about those leaders in the first place.