How do negotiations convince states to give up nuclear weapons programs?
- If rising states are worried about preventive war, declining states can use the threat of the stick to convince the rising states not to build without giving up concessions.
- If rising states find nuclear development too costly, the declining state can still give no concessions and induce the rising state not to build.
- If rising states have a credible threat to build, declining states can offer concessions that in turn convince the rising state not to build.
- Thus, to explain proliferation, we must explain the bargaining failure.
- This argument is from my own work on nuclear proliferation.